Court 17
Court 17 Illustrative Financial Model
This illustrative model explores scenarios for a proposed Greater London padel-and-tennis club. It does not describe GSH platform performance or an operating portfolio. The project has no secured site or trading history. Assumptions remain subject to site-specific diligence and revision; actual results may differ materially. This page is not an offer or invitation to invest.
This model tests one planned application of the GSH thesis. It does not define the limits of GSH's broader investment strategy.
Basis of preparation
These are modelled projections for a single Greater London flagship club, not a forecast. They depend on the assumptions shown and on securing a site. Actual results will differ.
No club has been built and no site is secured, so there is no trading history to check any of this against. Several assumptions below are rated low confidence by the model itself. Nothing here is an offer or an invitation to invest.
Years one to three
The base case
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Members (closing) | 900 | 1,200 | 1,300 |
| Revenue | £4.14m | £6.49m | £7.62m |
| Gross profit | £3.86m | £5.99m | £7.03m |
| Operating costs | (£3.80m) | (£4.71m) | (£5.12m) |
| EBITDA | £0.06m | £1.28m | £1.92m |
| EBITDA margin | 1.5% | 19.8% | 25.2% |
- Breakeven is approximately 1,000 members against a fixed cost base.
- Payroll is 36% of Year 3 revenue, against a 30-40% sector norm.
- Year 1 lands at roughly breakeven, not profit.
- Costs are held flat across scenarios, which is deliberately conservative.
Scenarios
Downside, base, upside
All three, together. The downside ends year three at a loss. The deck's own framing is that it is the honest case, because the cost base does not flex.
| Year 3 | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Members | 900 | 1,300 | 1,400 |
| Revenue | £5.41m | £7.62m | £8.40m |
| EBITDA | (£0.12m) | £1.92m | £2.64m |
| EBITDA margin | (2.2%) | 25.2% | 31.4% |
| Churn | 30% | 25% | 20% |
Assumptions
What it all rests on
Published with the model's own confidence ratings, low ones included. Those are the figures to argue with first.
| Assumption | Value | Confidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blended ARPU | £298/mo | High | Harbour Club Chelsea £325 with courts included; Third Space £345. The price is benchmarked, the band mix is not. |
| Play frequency | 4 per month | High | Playtomic UK 2025, stable across the year on c.172,000 tracked players. |
| Active member ratio | 65% | High | TRP 10,000 study; David Lloyd's 73% in-year active rate. |
| Churn | 25% per year | High | HFA 2025 puts the industry at c.34%. Premium operators reach 20-25%. |
| Year 1 members | 900 | Medium | Extrapolated from David Lloyd Harlow's 200+ founding members. No London padel-club comparator exists. |
| Drinks per member | 1.5 per week | Low | No racket-club benchmark exists. |
| Retail per member | £190 per year | Low | No UK per-member pro-shop benchmark exists. |
| Brand partnerships | £100k per year | Low | The Specsavers deal covered 15 clubs and 69 courts. Single-site value is unproven. |
| Rent and utilities | £825k per year | Low | Entirely site-specific until a site is secured. |
The three Low-confidence revenue lines are 10% of Year 3 revenue. Stripping all three still leaves the base case at £1.4m of EBITDA.
Revenue mix
Where year three comes from
| Line | Year 3 |
|---|---|
| Membership subscriptions | £4.48m |
| Joining fees | £309k |
| Guest passes | £250k |
| Food | £601k |
| Bar and drinks | £444k |
| Coffee | £185k |
| Events, private and corporate hire | £350k |
| Coworking, leagues, camps, lockers | £360k |
| Retail and pro shop | £238k |
| Wellness | £194k |
| Coaching, net to club | £114k |
| Brand partnerships | £100k |
| Total | £7.62m |
Membership and joining fees are 63% of revenue, food and drink 16%, everything else 21%. Revenue per member is approximately £5,860 per year.
The club these numbers describe is Court 17, a proposed concept that is not yet operating.